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Main - General MFN Discussion

Re: Volatility Rating

By Brrexkl
9/10/2016 5:13 pm
But WHERE do you see the Volatility Rating? I'm not seeing it.

Re: Volatility Rating

By jgcruz
9/10/2016 5:14 pm
I don't think it will show up (in MFN-7) until the season rolls over.

Re: Volatility Rating

By Gustoon - League Admin
9/11/2016 2:56 am
Ares wrote:
I was on the fence at first, but have come over to liking its inclusion in the analysis process of the draft. One change I would like to see implemented, however, would be the inclusion of a small chance for players to reverse their polarity. As it stands, if a player goes up or down in their first TC, you know that they'll continue this trend for the rest of their natural lives. What I'd love is for there to exist a small chance for a player to reverse this direction, for better or for worse. This would encourage users to stick with their 'bust' draft picks for longer, hoping they might 'turn it around'.


It also seems very apparent that if you draft a player in the higher end of the draft with a volatility rating in the 80+s they seem to have a tendency to bust more than say a player in the bottom end of the first and the 2nd round. . . well that's how it appears to me.

Re: Volatility Rating

By setherick
9/11/2016 8:12 am
Gustoon wrote:
Ares wrote:
I was on the fence at first, but have come over to liking its inclusion in the analysis process of the draft. One change I would like to see implemented, however, would be the inclusion of a small chance for players to reverse their polarity. As it stands, if a player goes up or down in their first TC, you know that they'll continue this trend for the rest of their natural lives. What I'd love is for there to exist a small chance for a player to reverse this direction, for better or for worse. This would encourage users to stick with their 'bust' draft picks for longer, hoping they might 'turn it around'.


It also seems very apparent that if you draft a player in the higher end of the draft with a volatility rating in the 80+s they seem to have a tendency to bust more than say a player in the bottom end of the first and the 2nd round. . . well that's how it appears to me.


I don't think I've seen a player with a vol rating above 70 go in the top 15 in the drafts of 2, 10, or 75.

Re: Volatility Rating

By lellow2011
9/11/2016 8:21 am
setherick wrote:
Gustoon wrote:
Ares wrote:
I was on the fence at first, but have come over to liking its inclusion in the analysis process of the draft. One change I would like to see implemented, however, would be the inclusion of a small chance for players to reverse their polarity. As it stands, if a player goes up or down in their first TC, you know that they'll continue this trend for the rest of their natural lives. What I'd love is for there to exist a small chance for a player to reverse this direction, for better or for worse. This would encourage users to stick with their 'bust' draft picks for longer, hoping they might 'turn it around'.


It also seems very apparent that if you draft a player in the higher end of the draft with a volatility rating in the 80+s they seem to have a tendency to bust more than say a player in the bottom end of the first and the 2nd round. . . well that's how it appears to me.


I don't think I've seen a player with a vol rating above 70 go in the top 15 in the drafts of 2, 10, or 75.


Probably because now that we can see the vol, we're scared to death of those high risk guys with extremely valuable picks.

Re: Volatility Rating

By setherick
9/11/2016 8:25 am
lellow2011 wrote:
setherick wrote:
Gustoon wrote:
Ares wrote:
I was on the fence at first, but have come over to liking its inclusion in the analysis process of the draft. One change I would like to see implemented, however, would be the inclusion of a small chance for players to reverse their polarity. As it stands, if a player goes up or down in their first TC, you know that they'll continue this trend for the rest of their natural lives. What I'd love is for there to exist a small chance for a player to reverse this direction, for better or for worse. This would encourage users to stick with their 'bust' draft picks for longer, hoping they might 'turn it around'.


It also seems very apparent that if you draft a player in the higher end of the draft with a volatility rating in the 80+s they seem to have a tendency to bust more than say a player in the bottom end of the first and the 2nd round. . . well that's how it appears to me.


I don't think I've seen a player with a vol rating above 70 go in the top 15 in the drafts of 2, 10, or 75.


Probably because now that we can see the vol, we're scared to death of those high risk guys with extremely valuable picks.


...and we're smart.

Also, the flipside of this is that I'm not going to draft a player that has all but one core attribute, but low vol because he won't boom enough to make up that one skill. Like this guy, so tempting, but he'll never catch: https://mfn2.myfootballnow.com/player/7639

But since Courage is always more important than catch, so he may still be worth it.
Last edited at 9/11/2016 9:34 am

Re: Volatility Rating

By trslick
9/11/2016 5:39 pm
This may sound stupid to you guys and I know this is a sim,but, the drafting is my trouble spot
on here! Years of watching workouts,practice,film you get a fill of what kid will play where and
that gut feeling of the kid with heart that should not make the team but you find a spot! Then
that kid becomes special and at times made the 5 star recruit look like a walk on. I just can't get
that conection,its a game I know and I will get use to all these numbers,in time.

Re: Volatility Rating

By Kahoon
9/12/2016 8:39 am
trslick wrote:
This may sound stupid to you guys and I know this is a sim,but, the drafting is my trouble spot
on here! Years of watching workouts,practice,film you get a fill of what kid will play where and
that gut feeling of the kid with heart that should not make the team but you find a spot
! Then
that kid becomes special and at times made the 5 star recruit look like a walk on. I just can't get
that connection, its a game I know and I will get use to all these numbers,in time.


I get that. ALL the talent you acquired in RL, is not helpful in evaluating draft choices here.
What frustrates ME the most, is ALL the things I DON'T know about the game, what's MOST important, what's NOT important.

I can't ask the question(s) if I don't even know what questions I should be asking. (this refers to way more than just the draft. For example: a few questions I have no idea about: what happens when you Play a player out of position, how does that effect his ratings? Or, playing a player with minimal experience at a position? Playing a player who is hurt? How is an injured player (probable) affected when you play him, vs a player hurt that is doubtful? When should I NOT play a player who is hurt.

Oppssss............. sorry for the rant. Not intending to hijack the thread, this all spilled out after reading what trslick said.

Re: Volatility Rating

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
9/12/2016 12:29 pm
I see what you're saying, and truth be told I had very originally considered making the talent evaluation more like what you describe, trslick. I ultimately decided that this would be far too complicated and difficult to experience, and keep it more objective - so I went back to using the numeric attribute ratings. The 'volatility' rating sort of brings back some of the 'intuition' aspect - if you have a low-rated, high volatility player, you might want to keep him around to see if he improves - but ultimately the evaluation is driven by the objective ratings.

Some quick answers: what happens when you play a player out of position? His attributes still apply, but his lack of experience will reduce his reaction time. His experience at his assigned position (not his depth chart but the position that shows on his player page) in increased during practice, but he does gain a nominal amount of experience for each play he is on the field at a different position. So if you play a player out of position long enough he actually will increase his experience, although not to the degree that he would if he was actually assigned to that position.

Playing a player who is hurt reduces his attributes at the injured area (i.e. QB with an arm injury reduces his throwing skills, a WR with a leg injury reduces his running skills, etc). It also increases their probably of being further injured. The more severe the injury, the greater those impacts. In general, you should play probable players unless you have a nearly equal backup to sub in, play questionable players only if you have no other choice, and really try to avoid playing doubtful players if you can.
Last edited at 9/12/2016 3:05 pm

Re: Volatility Rating

By trslick
9/12/2016 2:26 pm
You are doing a wonderful job JDB, in no way was I wanting change to your great creation! I
could never comprehend what goes into this sim and in no way will a simulation have the human intuition! I was only feeling inapt at pulling talented players!