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Re: If There Is Any Hope of Surviving Version 0.4.3........

By King of Bling
8/30/2018 11:01 am
Certain league's QBs get killed once the 1st qtr ends...I don't get it?!@

Re: If There Is Any Hope of Surviving Version 0.4.3........

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
8/30/2018 4:23 pm
setherick wrote:
Unless this changed without any of us knowing, this is completely untrue. Any player that busts at camp busts for their entire career. Any player that booms at camp, booms their entire career.


-3 is not a bust. If a player moves that minimally, especially if he has low volatility, he is just as likely to come back up. What changed is the magnitude of rookies' movement in their first training camp. Before that may have been -1 or less.

Re: If There Is Any Hope of Surviving Version 0.4.3........

By setherick
8/30/2018 4:25 pm
Bryson10 wrote:
I track progression and I’ve seen guys go down a point with low vol and then back up but mostly due to my weights and the speed or acceleration change with position changes. I’ve found that low vol is still just as risky as high vol though and it is frusrating when a low vol guy loses like 6 points. It’s all a crapshoot from my perspective lol


jdavidbakr wrote:
setherick wrote:
Unless this changed without any of us knowing, this is completely untrue. Any player that busts at camp busts for their entire career. Any player that booms at camp, booms their entire career.


-3 is not a bust. If a player moves that minimally, especially if he has low volatility, he is just as likely to come back up. What changed is the magnitude of rookies' movement in their first training camp. Before that may have been -1 or less.


I've tried to set my weights to level out a lot of variance, so -3 is as big of a drop as -5 or even -10 in some positions. That's what makes taking a 0 Vol player and having them drop 3 so frustrating. That means one of the core attributes busted hard.
Last edited at 8/30/2018 4:26 pm

Re: If There Is Any Hope of Surviving Version 0.4.3........

By Booger926
8/30/2018 4:26 pm
jdavidbakr wrote:
setherick wrote:
Unless this changed without any of us knowing, this is completely untrue. Any player that busts at camp busts for their entire career. Any player that booms at camp, booms their entire career.


-3 is not a bust. If a player moves that minimally, especially if he has low volatility, he is just as likely to come back up. What changed is the magnitude of rookies' movement in their first training camp. Before that may have been -1 or less.


No matter what is said, a bust in training is a career bust and a boom is a career boom

Re: If There Is Any Hope of Surviving Version 0.4.3........

By CrazyRazor
8/30/2018 6:14 pm
I'm with JDB on this one. NO player should be exactly as advertised. When has that ever been the case? A boom is a homerun and a bust is a complete whiff. You're complaining about a minimal drop in future potential. He went up in current ability, so he definitely did not bust. I don't hear you complaining when the 86 vol guy goes up 2 points, instead of 15-20. I guess that's acceptable, considering the other alternative, huh?
Last edited at 8/30/2018 6:15 pm

Re: If There Is Any Hope of Surviving Version 0.4.3........

By setherick
8/30/2018 7:08 pm
CrazyRazor wrote:
I'm with JDB on this one. NO player should be exactly as advertised. When has that ever been the case? A boom is a homerun and a bust is a complete whiff. You're complaining about a minimal drop in future potential. He went up in current ability, so he definitely did not bust. I don't hear you complaining when the 86 vol guy goes up 2 points, instead of 15-20. I guess that's acceptable, considering the other alternative, huh?


I stubbornly disagree. SOME number has to mean SOMETHING on this game. I understand most of the game is just RNG nonsense. Can at least Vol make sense?

Also, 0 Vol should mean your scouting department did their ******* job? (And the player was from the U of Iowa...)

Re: If There Is Any Hope of Surviving Version 0.4.3........

By Infinity on Trial
8/30/2018 7:35 pm
jdavidbakr wrote:
setherick wrote:
Unless this changed without any of us knowing, this is completely untrue. Any player that busts at camp busts for their entire career. Any player that booms at camp, booms their entire career.


-3 is not a bust. If a player moves that minimally, especially if he has low volatility, he is just as likely to come back up. What changed is the magnitude of rookies' movement in their first training camp. Before that may have been -1 or less.


So, first JDB tries to avoid the issue by telling a lie: That a player who goes -3 in camp can go +3 during the season. This is obviously false, or not working. With the exception of weight changes (and corresponding speed changes), a player who gains or loses points in camp will only continue in the same direction.

When setherick points out the absurdity of his claim, JDB changes the conversation. Nevermind the issue at hand, who says -3 is a bust? No player should be a sure thing! (Forget the part where nobody is questioning that.)

I would be curious to hear from others on this. I appreciate the uncertainty, but I'd also like the vol to be more reliable. I believe -5 is a major disappointment, the kind of thing that would make a 2nd round pick a 4th or 5th rounder. That kind of swing should be extremely rare for a low vol player. Overall, the draft has gone from my most favorite part of managing a team to unbearably infuriating. The only smart move right now is to get rid of your first-round picks, trading them for proven player and/or later rounds. That's inherently bad.

There's a bigger problem with the draft, which is talent distribution to begin with. Speed ratings are just plain stupid. Which brings us full circle. My all-time favorite lie was when JDB was promising us that linemen were slower than skill position players, that speed means something different for each position, and we just weren't smart enough to comprehend the physics of a player's weight. Then he normalized speed so that 80 means 80 no matter the position or weight, and it became obvious that he was lying all along.

Re: If There Is Any Hope of Surviving Version 0.4.3........

By trslick
8/30/2018 8:06 pm
This is a GAME. I play the GAME. I like the GAME. Thanks JDB for the GAME.

Re: If There Is Any Hope of Surviving Version 0.4.3........

By Big Poppa
8/30/2018 8:37 pm
Without getting into the back and forth...In my opinion 043 is worse than 042. And I didn't think that was possible.

Re: If There Is Any Hope of Surviving Version 0.4.3........

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
8/30/2018 8:48 pm
Here is a rough explanation of the math with the attribute movement. The movement of the future value is based on a normal distribution random number. That means that it should trend toward its mean. The standard deviation of this distribution is based on the distance between the current and future values. Volatility is a value that moves the mean. So 0 volatility means the mean is zero - which means that the movement is just as likely to go up as it is to go down. Volatility of 100 means that the mean of the distribution is at the max either up or down. The only thing you don't know is whether that 100 is positive or negative.

So yes, someone with 0 volatility can and always has been able to recover what they lost in their first training camp. Training camp, though, moves a distance of about equal to the movement during the entire season, so to move back you would need an inverse of roughly the same random number generated at each game stage all season long. If a 0 volatility player moves by a value outside of the third standard deviation (0.2% chance) you're right, he probably won't recover from that. But if the more likely scenario happens where he's at the outside of one standard deviation, he could recover most of that during the season and in the next training camp. But he's also just as likely to continue to drop.